Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 3.954265 4.684007 5.493625 6.456035 7.566332 8.804401 10.286761
2025-06-15 2.926564 3.926271 5.159484 6.780758 8.842745 11.363105 14.660502
2025-06-22 2.185199 3.266197 4.726393 6.815027 9.692370 13.478231 18.789570
2025-06-29 1.687894 2.775840 4.366652 6.812752 10.416941 15.457220 22.942706
2025-07-06 1.334749 2.393973 4.056984 6.782704 11.040620 17.314348 27.091537
2025-07-13 1.193753 2.303851 4.153542 7.349125 12.584116 20.628190 33.654191
2025-07-20 1.025493 2.125175 4.065489 7.589728 13.626960 23.273136 39.455368
2025-07-27 0.899166 1.991107 4.022292 7.883964 14.771425 26.166898 45.892266
2025-08-03 0.760155 1.799681 3.838238 7.892931 15.415731 28.290955 51.260524
2025-08-10 0.617033 1.565416 3.528649 7.616350 15.506629 29.473135 55.143088
2025-08-17 0.492812 1.341159 3.195494 7.236169 15.345563 30.179305 58.241789
2025-08-24 0.415665 1.206242 3.021677 7.142413 15.703881 31.824771 63.103354
2025-08-31 0.349124 1.083135 2.856579 7.053211 16.083087 33.587453 68.417970
2025-09-07 0.321513 1.055215 2.904787 7.435036 17.466899 37.379776 77.821240
2025-09-14 0.278803 0.974151 2.811075 7.483116 18.156556 39.890910 85.010209
2025-09-21 0.240368 0.894454 2.704966 7.484499 18.742256 42.243569 92.078238
2025-09-28 0.206480 0.818507 2.593155 7.453178 19.247815 44.472180 99.070592
2025-10-05 0.201318 0.834933 2.733693 8.069654 21.292678 50.050943 113.189941
2025-10-12 0.183738 0.803928 2.735869 8.331373 22.538054 54.041471 124.349306
2025-10-19 0.169729 0.781618 2.759014 8.651179 23.954514 58.508904 136.805915
2025-10-26 0.148694 0.726222 2.672392 8.660946 24.616734 61.380576 146.106075
2025-11-02 0.123239 0.644092 2.485208 8.360407 24.469697 62.435878 151.595804
2025-11-09 0.099641 0.559977 2.271766 7.947126 23.980910 62.664914 155.292831